Middle-Power Development in a Fragmented World: Indonesia’s Development Strategy in 2025
Keywords:
Indonesia, Middle Power, Development Strategy, Geopolitical Fragmentation, Strategic AutonomyAbstract
Amid intensifying geopolitical fragmentation and great-power rivalry, middle-power countries face increasing challenges in balancing domestic development with strategic autonomy. This study examines Indonesia’s development strategy in 2025 through the concept of omni-directional engagement, focusing on industrial policy, ASEAN diplomacy, digital transformation, climate governance, and the Nusantara capital project. Using a qualitative approach based on literature review and policy analysis, the study integrates perspectives from dependency theory, constructivism, and development economics. The findings show that Indonesia has strengthened its role in global supply chains through downstream industrialization and diversified international partnerships. However, these gains are accompanied by structural challenges, including governance fragmentation, fiscal pressures, environmental risks, and uneven institutional capacity. The study argues that Indonesia’s ability to sustain development in a fragmented global order depends on stronger policy coordination, institutional reform, and balanced geopolitical engagement. The article contributes to broader debates on middle-power development strategies in the Global South.
Abstrak
Di tengah meningkatnya fragmentasi geopolitik dan rivalitas kekuatan besar, negara middle-power menghadapi tantangan yang semakin kompleks dalam menyeimbangkan pembangunan domestik dan otonomi strategis. Penelitian ini menganalisis strategi pembangunan Indonesia tahun 2025 melalui konsep omni-directional engagement dengan fokus pada kebijakan industrialisasi, diplomasi ASEAN, transformasi digital, tata kelola iklim, dan proyek Ibu Kota Nusantara. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif berbasis studi literatur dan analisis kebijakan dengan mengintegrasikan teori dependensi, konstruktivisme, dan ekonomi pembangunan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia berhasil memperkuat posisinya dalam rantai pasok global melalui hilirisasi industri dan diversifikasi kemitraan internasional. Namun, capaian tersebut diiringi tantangan struktural berupa fragmentasi tata kelola, tekanan fiskal, risiko lingkungan, dan keterbatasan kapasitas institusional. Studi ini menegaskan bahwa keberlanjutan pembangunan Indonesia dalam tatanan global yang terfragmentasi sangat bergantung pada penguatan koordinasi kebijakan, reformasi institusi, dan keseimbangan keterlibatan geopolitik.
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